Confidence-based laboratory test reduction recommendation algorithm

Abstract

Background: We propose a new deep learning model to identify unnecessary hemoglobin (Hgb) tests for patients admitted to the hospital, which can help reduce health risks and healthcare costs. Methods: We collected internal patient data from a teaching hospital in Houston and external patient data from the MIMIC III database. The study used a conservative definition of unnecessary laboratory tests, which was defined as stable (i.e., stability) and below the lower normal bound (i.e., normality). Considering that machine learning models may yield less reliable results when trained on noisy inputs containing low-quality information, we estimated prediction confidence to assess the reliability of predicted outcomes. We adopted a “select and predict” design philosophy to maximize prediction performance by selectively considering samples with high prediction confidence for recommendations. Our model accommodated irregularly sampled observational data to make full use of variable correlations (i.e., with other laboratory test values) and temporal dependencies (i.e., previous laboratory tests performed within the same encounter) in selecting candidates for training and prediction. Results: The proposed model demonstrated remarkable Hgb prediction performance, achieving a normality AUC of 95.89% and a Hgb stability AUC of 95.94%, while recommending a reduction of 9.91% of Hgb tests that were deemed unnecessary. Additionally, the model could generalize well to external patients admitted to another hospital. Conclusions: This study introduces a novel deep learning model with the potential to significantly reduce healthcare costs and improve patient outcomes by identifying unnecessary laboratory tests for hospitalized patients.