Paving Paths to 2050: Mapping the Mexican Power Sector’s Potential to Build Sustainable Futures

Abstract

A prospective analysis of the Mexican power system has been carried out, and the possibilities for complying with the National Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments adopted in the Paris Agreement in the National Climate Change Strategy of the General Law for Climate Change are presented. A hybrid approach was used, inspired by Foresight Frameworks on one side, and using an accounting and scenario-based modeling platform called Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) with economic optimization on the other, to analyze four possible scenarios to 2050: Trend, also known as Business As Usual (BAU), which only looks at the growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) and population, along with the country’s proven potential for renewable resources under the policy framework before 2015; Market, which considers the trend of installation of renewable technologies and the policies of the past administration; Sovereignty, which does the same as the previous scenario but for the policies of the current Mexican government; and Sustainable, which together with GDP and population growth takes into account the possible potential of national renewable resources and characteristics that the country should have to foster this. The research question was: Is there a long-term energy policy for the Mexican power sector to accomplish its NDCs? The study concluded that the best scenario is Sustainable, showing that the possible potential of the country’s renewable resources has the capacity to meet the Mexican commitments adopted in the Paris Agreement if, on one side, techno-economic renewable technologies and electricity storage systems are used, and on the other, if the country’s strategic areas evolve into a more holistically sustainable future.