Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Kazakhstan

Abstract

The vulnerability and adaptation assessments for Kazakhstan address the agriculture, grassland/livestock, and water resources sectors. As our vulnerability and adaptation assessments show, estimated climate changes will generally have negative impacts on the relevant sectors. Reductions of spring wheat yield are anticipated to be 56% under CCCM, 51% under GFD3, and 12% under GF01 scenarios. Winter wheat yield could increase about 21% under GF01 and 17% under GFD3 and CCCM scenarios. Under the CCCM scenario, wool productivity could decrease 11% to 19% and the number of lambs would be 2% to 26% less than under baseline conditions. The most significant losses of grassland productivity, up to 80%, are projected under the CCCM scenario. The assessment of the water resources sector, conducted for both a mountainous and a plains basin, indicates that water resources throughout the territory of Kazakhstan could be vulnerable. According to the preliminary assessment, climate change under 2×CO2 levels could cause 20% to 30% reductions in water resources of Kazakhstan.