Datos climáticos y prácticas recomendadas para proyectar cambios en la distribución de especies

Abstract

Climate change is a complex phenomenon that affects all socio-environmental systems, manifesting itself uniquely in different regions. To comprehensively understand and project the extent of its impact, it is crucial to engage in a collaborative effort involving specialists from various disciplines. The international scientific community has made significant progress in developing diverse datasets for studying climate variability and change, along with the formulation of suitable methodologies for their analysis. However, there is a tendency within certain disciplines to rely solely on a single source of climate data, either for the sake of simplicity or due to its compatibility with desired resolution or availability requirements. In this context, climatologists express their apprehension regarding the uncritical utilization of climate databases. It is from this concern that the present article aims to provide a comprehensive description of the scope and limitations associated with the available databases. Furthermore, the article addresses the issue of uncertainty in climate projections and offers guidance on how to effectively employ climate data in conducting experiments pertaining to species distribution, while considering the inherent uncertainty associated with such data. Emphasis is placed on the significance of conducting multiple experiments utilizing independent climate projections, as well as utilizing statistical tools to draw conclusions based on a range of potential solutions. By adopting this approach, researchers can more effectively assess the impact of climate change and its implications for species distribution patterns.