Analysis and Forecasting the Agriculture Production Sector in Rwanda

Abstract

Agriculture production is a crucial economic growth sector, especially for developing countries like Rwanda. Resulted from investments boosting in several areas, Rwanda experienced stable economic growth, where agriculture provides a vital contribution and significant Policies adopted for agriculture improvement. However, the sector's future development still unclear as it is manifesting decrement shares over the years in the county's economy and workforce. No research has yet projected the sector's future production to explain the sector's trend, allowing the government and partners to formulate strategies accordingly. This paper analyzes the sector's economic contribution over several years and forecasts its future. The useful combined grey model predicts the sector's production where a nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NGBM) with an added optimal parameter (NGBM-OP) is used for the prediction after comparison to others. Outcomes in the sample size from 1960 to 2017, confirm the NGBM-OP as the reliable compared with other prediction models then becomes the best for forecast up to 2030. The obtained sector's production forecast, results pointed out the sector's slow production increment in the future. Suggest its improvement based on investment attractions, especially the young generation through financial facilitation, farmer's training, and opportunity awareness.