Lava flow hazard prediction and monitoring with UAS: a case study from the 2014–2015 Pāhoa lava flow crisis, Hawai‘i

Abstract

Accurately predicting lava flow path behavior is critical for active crisis management operations. The advance and emplacement of pāhoehoe flows modifies and inverts pre-existing topography, prompting the need for rapid and accurate updates to the topographic models used to forecast flow paths. The evolution and velocity of pāhoehoe flows are dependent on macro and micro topography, the slope of the descent path, effusion rate, and rheology. During the 2014–2015 Pāhoa crisis on the island of Hawai‘i, we used a low-altitude unmanned aerial system (UAS) to quickly and repeatedly image the active front of a slowly advancing pāhoehoe lava flow. This imagery was used to generate a series of 1 m resolution bare-earth digital elevation models (DEMs) and associated paths of steepest descent over the study area. The spatial resolution and timeliness of these UAS-derived models are an improvement over the existing topographic data used by managers during the crisis. Results from a stepwise resampling experiment suggest that the optimum DEM resolution for generating accurate pāhoehoe flow paths through lowland tropical forest environments is between 1 and 3 m. Our updated models show that future flows in this area will likely be deflected by these newly emplaced flows, possibly threatening communities not directly impacted by the original 2014–2015 lava flow. We demonstrate the value of deploying UAS during a dynamic volcanic crisis and suggest that this technology can fill critical monitoring gaps for Kīlauea and other active volcanoes worldwide.