Potential conditions for fire occurrence in vegetation in the Peruvian Andes

Abstract

Fire activity in the Peruvian Andes has increased significantly in recent decades, but climatic parameters associated with drought, which may indirectly contribute to the occurrence of severe forest fires, have not yet been investigated. Because fire prevention tools are scarce, strategies for deterring burning are necessary in order to reduce impacts in regions where forest fires usually result from human activity. This study explores the conditions conducive to forest fire in the Andes of Peru. Daily precipitation and temperature observed data from the PISCO gridded dataset for the 2002-2016 period were used. In addition, MODIS satellite images (MOD09A1 product) were collected to characterise Andean vegetation using spectral indices. Analysis of daily temperature and rainfall indicates that climatic parameters such as cumulative precipitation, dry-day frequency and hot-day frequency are statistically associated with conditions that could contribute to increased forest fire occurrence. Our findings suggest that a decrease in the water content of vegetation, estimated by the Global Vegetation Moisture Index during the dry period and wet period onset, can be used to identify potential conditions for forest fire occurrence. This study suggests that forest managers should consider implementing prevention strategies that include continuous monitoring of climate and vegetation parameters.