Forecasting the adoption of emerging energy technologies: Managing climate change, governance and evolving social values

Abstract

With the link between fossil fuel use and climate change now almost universally accepted, tackling greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) has become a subject of great social urgency and technological challenge. A variety of models exist, or are under development, for analyzing the role of more sustainable systems, such as renewable energy technologies, in mitigating climate change. However, the direct cost of these technologies is generally higher than that of fossil fuel systems. Methods are needed to more fully account for external factors, societal impacts, and social values associated with fossil fuels versus sustainable energy systems. This paper presents a conceptual model targeted at informing energy policy in order to bring about improvements to inform the management of energy resources so that they can be optimized for climate change. This would then yield a set of governance actions. The model builds on Linstone’s multiple perspectives: technical, organizational, and personal, by attempting to forecast technology development along these perspectives. Thus, factors enabling faster and better adoption by consumers, and faster and more efficient development by organizations are evaluated by taking the potential technological improvements into account.