Comparisons of housing price risks between first-time buyer and former owner-occupier markets in England

Abstract

This study employs housing data from the nine main regions of England and from overall England to compare the volatility risks of housing prices for the first-time buyer (FTB) and former owner-occupier (FOO) markets. This study collects data from February 2012 to March 2020 to assess the volatility characteristics of housing prices in these two markets in each region of England. Additionally, the effect of interest rate shocks and the wealth effect of the stock market on these two markets are observed. The results reveal that for most regions, the FTB market has higher housing price volatility risks compared with the FOO market. Additionally, the FTB market is more easily affected by interest rate shocks and the wealth effect. In contrast to FOOs, FTBs are generally younger and less wealthy. If FTBs are facing a market with higher housing price risk, especially when the overall economy is affected by a shock (such as the European Debt Crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic), the response of the FTB housing market is greater; then the government must pay special attention when implementing policies that interfere with the market since these policies would particularly affect the welfare of FTBs.