Earth–air heat exchanger potential under future climate change scenarios in nine north american cities

Abstract

Earth–air heat exchanger (EAHE) potential was evaluated for nine locations representing a range of North American climates to determine the impact of future climate scenarios. This was motivated by the intrinsic relationship between climate conditions and EAHE potential. Future weather files were created using general circulation model (GCM) outputs for three representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios and two separate timeframes. These were used in a climate-based approach for estimating EAHE potential based on their capacity to provide either heating or cooling. The results demonstrated, cooling capacity of a hypothetical EAHE system decreased and heating capacity increased due to changes in demand. The largest effects were observed for later time periods and more drastic changes to radiative forcing. From the chosen locations, heating dominated sites are most susceptible to unfavorable changes in cooling capacity due to the synchronous timing of changes in cooling capacity relative to peak demand. This work highlights the importance of conducting a climate change impact assessment on EAHE potential in these climates to ensure system effectiveness into the future. Further work is required to explore the impact of depth and efficiency in addition to the resolution of climate changes models used.