The Multiple Origins of Ebola Disease Outbreaks

Abstract

Background. The origins of Ebola disease outbreaks remain enigmatic. Historically outbreaks have been attributed to spillover events from wildlife. However, recent data suggest that some outbreaks may originate from human-to-human transmission of prior outbreak strains instead of spillover. Clarifying the origins of Ebola disease outbreaks could improve detection and mitigation of future outbreaks. Methods. We reviewed the origins of all Ebola disease outbreaks from 1976 to 2022 to analyze the earliest cases and characteristics of each outbreak. The epidemiology and phylogenetic relationships of outbreak strains were used to further identify the likely source of each outbreak. Results. From 1976 to 2022 there were 35 Ebola disease outbreaks with 48 primary/index cases. While the majority of outbreaks were associated with wildlife spillover, resurgence of human-to-human transmission could account for roughly a quarter of outbreaks caused by Ebola virus. Larger outbreaks were more likely to lead to possible resurgence, and nosocomial transmission was associated with the majority of outbreaks. Conclusions. While spillover from wildlife has been a source for many Ebola disease outbreaks, multiple outbreaks may have originated from flare-ups of prior outbreak strains. Improving access to diagnostics as well as identifying groups at risk for resurgence of ebolaviruses will be crucial to preventing future outbreaks.