The Association Between Congestive Heart Failure and One-Year Mortality After Surgery in Singaporean Adults: A Secondary Retrospective Cohort Study Using Propensity-Score Matching, Propensity Adjustment, and Propensity-Based Weighting

Abstract

Background: Although congestive heart failure (CHF) is considered a risk factor for postoperative mortality, reliable quantification of the relationship between CHF and postoperative mortality risk is limited. We aimed to investigate the association between CHF and 1-year mortality after surgery in a large cohort of the Singaporean population. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, the study population included 69,032 adult patients who underwent surgery at Singapore General Hospital between 1 January 2012 and 31 October 2016. The target independent and dependent variables were CHF and 1-year mortality after surgery, respectively. Propensity score was estimated using a non-parsimonious multivariable logistic regression model. Multivariable adjustment, propensity score matching, propensity score adjustment, and propensity score-based weighting Cox proportional-hazards regression were performed to investigate the association between CHF and 1-year mortality after surgery. Results: The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) in the original cohort was 1.39 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20–1.61, P < 0.001). In additional propensity score adjustment, the HR between CHF and 1-year mortality after surgery was 1.34 (95% CI: 1.15–1.56, P < 0.001). In the propensity score-matched cohort, the multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis showed participants with CHF had a 54% increased risk of 1-year mortality after surgery (HR 1.54, 95% CI: 1.19–1.98, P < 0.001). The multivariate-adjusted HR of the inverse probability of treatment-weighted and standardised mortality ratio-weighted cohorts was 1.34 (95% CI: 1.10–1.62, P = 0.004) and 1.24 (95% CI: 1.17–1.32, P < 0.001), respectively. Conclusion: CHF is an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality after surgery in patients undergoing surgery. Depending on the statistical method, patients with CHF had a 24–54% increased risk of 1-year all-cause mortality after surgery. This provides a reference for optimising clinical decision-making, improving preoperative consultation, and promoting clinical communication.