A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR THE OPTIMAL REPLACEMENT OF RUBBER TREES

Abstract

Recognizing the lack of realism in optimal replacement analyses that assume constant prices and yield patterns over time, a stochastic model appropriate to rubber production is developed. Data drawn from Peninsular Malaysia are used to implement the model. The results suggest that efforts should be directed towards establishing bench mark maximum annuities as guides to more economic replanting decisions rather than emphasizing earlier replanting per se. The significance of price stabilization policies also becomes evident. 1977 The Australian Agricultural Economics Society