Estimating Solar Insolation and Power Generation of Photovoltaic Systems Using Previous Day Weather Data

Abstract

Day-ahead predictions of solar insolation are useful for forecasting the energy production of photovoltaic (PV) systems attached to buildings, and accurate forecasts are essential for operational efficiency and trading markets. In this study, a multilayer feed-forward neural network-based model that predicts the next day's solar insolation by taking into consideration the weather conditions of the present day was proposed. The proposed insolation model was employed to estimate the energy production of a real PV system located in South Korea. Validation research was performed by comparing the model's estimated energy production with the measured energy production data collected during the PV system operation. The accuracy indices for the optimal model, which included the root mean squared error, mean bias error, and mean absolute error, were 1.43 kWh/m2/day, -0.09 kWh/m2/day, and 1.15 kWh/m2/day, respectively. These values indicate that the proposed model is capable of producing reasonable insolation predictions; however, additional work is needed to achieve accurate estimates for energy trading.