Modeling of COVID-19 Cases in Indonesia with the Method of Geographically Weighted Regression

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread to all corners of the world, including Indonesia. Various factors affect the spread of COVID-19 cases in an area so that the government and the community can make prevention and control efforts so that this pandemic does not spread. This study aims to model the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia using the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method, which develops a linear regression model. The GWR model uses weights based on the location of each observation so that the model is obtained for that location. Determine the weighting on the bandwidth. Optimum bandwidth selection is obtained by minimizing the value of Cross-Validation (CV). The GWR model using a fixed bisquare kernel weighting function has an optimum bandwidth of 0.999948 with a minimum CV value of 397.076.128 with a coefficient of determination R2   of 85.1 %. The results show that the number of positive cases positively correlates with the number of patients who died from COVID-19. In contrast, the number of recovered patients negatively correlates with the number of patients who died from COVID-19.