An Out-of-Sample Evaluation of Dynamic Portfolio Strategies

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Abstract

This article evaluates out-of-sample portfolio performance for a real-time investor who can exploit time variation in the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns in optimizing a multiperiod portfolio choice problem. With the presence of parameter uncertainty, our out-of-sample analysis shows that ignoring time variation in the first two return moments leads to significant utility costs of at least 1.97% of annualized certainty equivalent return. Accounting for the time-varying risk premium plays a more important role than considering time-varying volatility in improving portfolio performance. Interestingly, behaving myopically or ignoring the hedge against changes in future investment opportunities can lead to small out-of-sample utility losses or even utility gains.

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APA

Lan, C. (2015). An Out-of-Sample Evaluation of Dynamic Portfolio Strategies. Review of Finance, 19(6), 2359–2399. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfu052

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