Quantitative risk assessment goals and challenges

Abstract

How should societies, organizations, and individuals manage risks from activities with unknown or uncertain consequences? Many regulators and scientists advocate quantitative risk assessment (QRA) as providing both a logical framework and a systematic procedure for organizing and applying scientific and engineering knowledge to improve “rational” (consequence-driven) decision making when the consequences of alternative decisions are uncertain. It seeks to do so by using predictive models to identify and recommend choices (typically, among alternative risk management interventions, policies, or plans) that are predicted to make preferred consequences more likely.