Exploiting the Bayesian approach to derive counts of married women of reproductive age across Cameroon for healthcare planning, 2000–2030

Abstract

Estimates of married women of reproductive age (MWRA) are needed for policy decisions to enhance reproductive health. Given the unavailability in Cameroon, this study aimed to derive MWRA counts by regions and divisions from 2000 to 2030. Data included 1976, 1987, and 2005 censuses with 606,542 women, five Demographic and Health Surveys from 1991 to 2018 with 48,981 women, and United Nations World Population Prospects from 1976 to 2030. Bayesian models were used in estimating fertility rates, net-migration, and finally, MWRA counts. The total MWRA population in Cameroon was estimated to increase from 2,260,665 (2,198,569–2,352,934) to 6,124,480 (5,862,854–6,482,921), reflecting a 5.7 (5.2–6.2) percentage points (%p) annual rise from 2000–2030. The Centre and Far North regions host the largest numbers, projected to reach 1,264,514 (1,099,373–1,470,021) and 1,069,814 (985,315–1,185,523), respectively, in 2030. The highest divisional-level increases are expected in Mfoundi [14.6%p (11.2–18.8)] and Bénoué [14.9%p (11.1–20.09). This study’s findings, showing varied regional- and divisional-level estimates of and trends in MWRA counts should set a baseline for determining the demand for programmes such as family planning, and the scaling of relevant resources sub-nationally.