Time-Lag Response of Landslide to Reservoir Water Level Fluctuations during the Storage Period: A Case Study of Baihetan Reservoir

Abstract

Fluctuations in reservoir water levels exert a strong triggering effect on landslides along reservoir banks, constituting a long-term concern in the safe operation of hydroelectric projects and in the prevention and management of geological disasters. While existing research has investigated the impact of periodic water level changes on the deformation of reservoir bank landslides, observation and detection of such deformation are challenging, with noticeable gaps in understanding how these deformations respond to water level changes during the water impoundment period. To address this, our study targets the Baihetan Reservoir, leveraging 567 ascending and descending LiCSAR data and LiCSBAS (the small-baseline subset within LiCSAR) technology to construct a time series of ground deformations in the study area from 2019 to 2023. The TLCC (Time Lag Cross Correlation) model was employed to examine the time-lag response pattern of reservoir bank landslide deformations to reservoir water level changes during the impoundment period. Our findings indicate a clear time-lag response in reservoir bank landslide deformations to water level changes during the impoundment process. The rise in water levels emerged as a primary factor influencing the instability of reservoir bank landslides. During the half-year impoundment period of the Baihetan Reservoir, a time lag of 5–7 days was observed between landslide deformations and increases in water levels, with landslides on the eastern and western banks exhibiting differing time-lag response patterns. Our study illuminates the time-lag effect between water level changes during reservoir impoundment and reservoir bank landslide deformation monitoring. By proposing a quantitative analysis methodology utilizing LiCSBAS technology and the TLCC model, our findings can inform decision-making in the field of disaster prevention and reduction in reservoir engineering.