A dynamic urban development model designed for purposes in the field of urban water management

Abstract

Urban drainage systems are a critical part of city infrastructure. Population growth and urban development can put severe pressure on these systems, especially due to sealing of surfaces and land use change. For a comprehensive adaptation of urban water infrastructure to constantly changing and evolving systems, a detailed simulation of the dynamics in city development is crucial. This can be done by either trying to predict future conditions as accurately as possible (with all their uncertainties) or by developing different scenarios and trying to develop adaptation measures, which are resilient to a range of future conditions. To achieve resilience and take a manifold of possibilities into account, a manifold of simulations are executed within given model boundaries. The presented urban development model is developed to offer the possibility of running several simulations with as few input data as possible to cover the possible range of changes. For a comparison of the simulated urban development scenarios, hydrodynamic simulations are performed to show differences in flooding according to the developed areas. In general, a percentage increase in effective impervious area results in a twice as high increase in percentage in total flooding volume.