Climatic uncertainty and the Colombian energy dilema

Abstract

The El Niño phenomenon in Colombia is characterized by a rainfall deficit precisely where most of the country’s hydroelectric plants are located. Climatic conditions of the Pliocene, ~ 2.6 to 5.3 million years ago, a good analogy for the changing global climate, suggest that rainfall deficits would occur in Colombia, negatively impacting hydroelectric generation. The backup for hydroelectric generation in Colombia is gas. Gas and oil reserves in our country are running out and our self-supply window is nearing its end. The combination of these factors make Colombia’s electricity generation highly vulnerable particularly to climatic conditions where rainfall deficits exist. Global warming caused by the burning of coal, oil and gas, could bring a scenario where, paradoxically, the only alternative for the country to have independence and energy security would be coal.