A model of land use change in city areas based on the conversion of unit lots

Abstract

Many studies on land use change have been performed in order to provide fundamental information for future land use plans. In the estimation process of transition probabilities of land use, it should be noted that the spatial unit of land use conversions in city area is a lot. The present study proposes a land use model based on the transition probability of lots, which can be built in planning support systems for sustainable urban development. Lot conversions such as changes in land category, division of lots, the demolition/reconstruction of buildings, changes in building types are described in the models, and we investigate what variables are best to describe the structure of lot conversions. Using the model estimated from time-series GIS data, we discuss the effects of land use policy by simulating land use change in the future, and demonstrate that it is necessary to control the potential for development of lots by adopting adequate zoning regulations and widening roads, by taking into account effects on lot conversions.