Examining the Spatially Non- Stationary Associations Between the Second Demographic Transition and Infant Mortality: A Poisson GWR Approach

Abstract

Based on ecological studies, second demographic transition (SDT) theorists concluded that some areas in the US were in vanguard of the SDT compared to others, implying spatial non-stationarity may be inherent in the SDT process. Linking the SDT to the infant mortality literature, we sought to answer two related questions: Are the main components of the SDT, specifically marriage postponement, cohabitation, and divorce, associated with infant mortality? If yes, do these associations vary across the US? We applied global Poisson and geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) models, a place-specific analytic approach, to county-level data in the contiguous US. After accounting for the racial/ethnic and socioeconomic compositions of counties and prenatal care utilization, we found (1) marriage postponement was negatively related to infant mortality in the southwestern states, but positively associated with infant mortality in parts of Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee, (2) cohabitation rates were positively related to infant mortality, and this relationship was stronger in California, coastal Virginia, and the Carolinas than other areas, and (3) a positive association between divorce rates and infant mortality in southwestern and northeastern areas of the US. These spatial patterns suggested that the associations between the SDT and infant mortality were stronger in the areas in vanguard of the SDT than in others. The comparison between global Poisson and GWPR results indicated that a place-specific spatial analysis not only fit the data better, but also provided insights into understanding the non-stationarity of the associations between the SDT and infant mortality.