Continuities and changes in electoral authoritarianism: evidence from Ethiopia

Abstract

This article analyzes how autocratic parties sustain and adjust electoral manipulative tactics to maintain electoral dominance in multi-level elections. It examines continuities and changes in electoral authoritarianism in Ethiopia by comparing elections held under the EPRDF and Prosperity Party (PP). The 2021 elections, marred by the detention of main opposition leaders, war and opposition boycotts, resulted in a dominant victory for the incumbent (PP), showing continuity of electoral dominance. Analysis of election data since 1995 shows that elections under PP were more competitive than the last two elections under the EPRDF in terms of opposition votes and seat share. Further, the analysis indicates regional asymmetry in electoral competition and opposition success, which is explained by asymmetric authoritarianism, ethnonationalism, and regional political dynamics. Despite this, the incumbent garnered public support through targeted rhetoric, addressing regional demands, and reframing historical narratives. These dynamics have implications for Ethiopia’s future and state-society relations. Insights from Ethiopia have implications for multi-ethnic federations facing challenges of democratization while highlighting the empirical need for a nuanced understanding of region-specific contexts to understand democratization challenges in ethnically diverse states.