Islamism, Arab Spring and the Future of Democracy

Abstract

In this chapter we consider new aspects of the above discussed issues on the basis of various databases. We highlight the strategic conclusions to be drawn from our analysis. In the first section we debate the urgent needs of Arab societies for reform. We also attempt so far to provide a differentiated picture of terror support rates among populations in the Arab world. In the next section in compliance with latest results of economic-cycle-oriented research on the Arab Spring we analyze some long-term cyclical trends, using spectral analysis. We also analyze the real convergence of living conditions of the Arab World with the rest of the world, based on life expectancy data. In the last section we wind up our debates about Islamism, Islamicity, the Open Society and the Future of Democracy in the Arab World. To this end, we present international value comparisons, combined with macro-quantitative reflections which will allow us to make cautious predictions about the future trajectories of democracy in the region, based on the relationships between development levels and value developments.