Dynamic performance of the agricultural sector under conditions of climate change and armed post-conflict

Abstract

The agricultural sector is a strategic source for the sustenance of the population worldwide, however, given the lack of a favourable environment that guarantees its sustainability and growth, this sector is exposed to multiple conflicts and needs, which affect its performance and even causing desertion of the producer. In this research, we model and analyse the agricultural sector of the potato in the Colombian context, which in addition to being a strategic food to respond to food crisis, represents the needs of the agricultural sector, where about 90% of producers are classified as small because of their low participation in land tenure and where, in addition to the low level of technology, the situation of armed conflict and climate change which negatively impacts their results. This paper deals with the simulation of the agricultural sector of the potato, projecting its results for the post-armed conflict where an improvement in its performance is expected, however it is contrasted with the conditions of climate change to determine the real impact in the sector. Since previous studies address the problem separately, here we propose a dynamic and comprehensive analysis with scope on the production, the intermediation for the marketing of the product and its financial performance, which allows us to understand the real impact on the performance of the sector.