Assessing wastewater micropollutant loads with approximate bayesian computations

Abstract

Wastewater production, like many other engineered and environmental processes, is inherent stochastic in nature and requires the use of complex stochastic models, for example, to predict realistic patterns of down-the-drain chemicals or pharmaceuticals and personal care products. Up until now, a formal method of statistical inference has been lacking for many of those models, where explicit likelihood functions were intractable. In this Article, we investigate Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods to infer important parameters of stochastic environmental models. ABC methods have been recently suggested to perform model-based inference in a Bayesian setting when model likelihoods are analytically or computationally intractable and have not been applied to environmental systems analysis or water quality modeling before. In a case study, we investigate the performance of three different algorithms to infer the number of wastewater pulses contained in three high-resolution data series of benzotriazole and total nitrogen loads in sewers. We find that all algorithms perform well and that the uncertainty in the inferred number of corresponding wastewater pulses varies between 6% and 28%. In our case, the results are more sensitive to substance characteristics than to catchment properties. Although the application of ABC methods requires careful tuning and attention to detail, they have a great general potential to update stochastic model parameters with monitoring data and improve their predictive capabilities. © 2011 American Chemical Society.