The Mechanism of Evaluation Under the Conditions of Uncertainty of Innovational Project as a Random Process

Abstract

The main parameters of assessment of efficiency of innovative projects are the value of the initial investment, risks of the project and the degree of their influence on the result of the implementation, the expected profitability of the project, the value of the discount rate and several other indicators. Implementation of the innovative project and its further exploitation is the transformation of the initial parameters taking into account the time factor under the influence of external and internal influences of the active environment. Under conditions of uncertainty, including the crisis, innovative projects play a role of a stimulant for sustainable development of the company. An innovative project can be regarded as a set of possible implementations, i.e. as a random function. The objective of investors is to determine the most likely outcome of the implementation of the project for further decisions.