Impact of stratospheric major warmings and the quasi-biennial oscillation on the variability of stratospheric water vapor

Abstract

Based on simulations with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere for the 1979-2013 period, driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis, we analyze the impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and of Major Stratospheric Warmings (MWs) on the amount of water vapor entering the stratosphere during boreal winter. The amplitude of H2O variation related to the QBO amounts to 0.5 ppmv. The additional effect of MWs reaches its maximum about 2-4 weeks after the central date of the MW and strongly depends on the QBO phase. Whereas during the easterly QBO phase there is a pronounced drying of about 0.3 ppmv about 3 weeks after the MW, the impact of the MW during the westerly QBO phase is smaller (about 0.2 ppmv) and more diffusely spread over time. We suggest that the MW-associated enhanced dehydration combined with a higher frequency of MWs after the year 2000 may have contributed to the lower stratospheric water vapor after 2000.