The role of tropical mean-state biases in modeled winter northern hemisphere el niño teleconnections

Abstract

The role of tropical mean-state biases in El Niño-Southern Oscillation teleconnections in the winter Northern Hemisphere is examined in coupled general circulation models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The main North Pacific teleconnection pattern, defined here by the strengths of the anomalous Kuroshio anticyclone and North Pacific cyclone, is linked to two anomalous Rossby wave sources that occur during El Niño: A negative source over East Asia and a positive source to the west of the North Pacific. Errors in the teleconnection pattern in models are associated with spatial biases in mean atmospheric ascent and descent and the strength of the corresponding forcing of Rossby waves via suppressed or enhanced El Niño precipitation responses in the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) and the equatorial central Pacific (CP). The WNP El Niño precipitation response is most strongly linked to the strength of the Kuroshio anticyclone and the CP El Niño precipitation response is most strongly linked to the strength of the North Pacific cyclone. The mean state and corresponding El Niño precipitation response can have seemingly distinct biases. A bias in the WNP does not necessarily correspond to a bias in the CP, suggesting that improvement of biases in both tropical WNP and equatorial CP regions should be considered for an accurate teleconnection pattern.