Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
CITATION STYLE
Troccoli, A., Zambon, F., Hodges, K. I., & Marani, M. (2012). Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change. Climatic Change, 113(3–4), 1065–1079. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0093-x
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