A cellular automata based approach for prediction of hot mudflow disaster area

Abstract

A Novel cellular automata's based approach for prediction of hot mudflow disaster is proposed. A prediction model for hot mudflow based on fluid dynamic is proposed because hot mudflow spread like fluid dynamic with velocity, viscosity and thermal flow parameters. We use much simpler cellular automata's approach with adding some probabilistic parameter because that is relatively simple and have a good enough performance for visualization of fluid dynamics. We add some new rules to represent hot mudflow movement such as moving rule, precipitation rule, and absorption rule. The prediction results show high accuracy of elevation changes at the predicted points and its surrounding areas. We compare these predicted results to the digital elevation map derived from ASTER/DEM. Some period maps to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the proposed method. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.