Climatic suitability for Eucalyptus cloeziana cultivation in four Brazilian states

Abstract

This study aimed to identify potentially climatic zones for Eucalyptus cloeziana cultivation in four Brazilian states - Bahia - BA, Mato Grosso do Sul - MS, Minas Gerais - MG and São Paulo - SP. 490 records of this species were obtained in Australia. The current prediction for habitat suitability distribution was based on climatic conditions recorded between 1960 and 1990. For 2050's future projections, four scenarios were used: RCP 2.6 W/m2, RCP 4.5 W/m2, RCP 6.0 W/m2 and RCP 8.5 W/m2. MaxEnt was used for modeling, and only climatic information was used as a predictor variable. The modeling was robust and presented high values for the Area Under the Curve (AUC) ( > 0.95). Annual precipitation and isothermality were the variables that contributed the most to the models' quality. We concluded that the Brazilian mesoregions of Itapetininga (SP), Litoral Sul Paulista (SP) and Zona da Mata (MG) had the most suitable climatic sites for E. cloeziana cultivation. Climate changes may restrict the distribution of suitable areas for E. cloeziana cultivation. The negative effect of global warming was more prominent in MG.