Distribution of drought-tolerant plant species under future climate change in Iran

Abstract

The potential suitable habitats for ten drought-tolerant plant species were identified in Iran based on bioclimatic variables using MaxEnt. The impact of climate change on habitat suitability of the species was modeled using the GFDL-ESM2G climate scenario, which predicts warmer and slightly wetter conditions, and the CCSM4 scenario, which predicts warmer and slightly drier conditions for the mid century (2041 to 2060). The drought tolerance level of the species was determined by the de Martonne aridity index based on temperature and precipitation. Cornulaca monacantha was classified as the most drought-tolerant species, followed by Hammada salicornica, Seidlitzia rosmarinus, Zygophyllum eurypterum, Haloxylon persicum, Haloxylon ammodendron, Cousinia stocksii, Halocnemum strobilaceum, Gymnocarpus decander and Cousinia cylindracea. The highest suitable habitat gains were predicted to occur for C. cylindracea and H. strobilaceum, whereas the highest losses in habitat suitability were predicted for H. persicum and C. stocksii under both scenarios of climate change. Soil attributes, type and intensity of interaction between species and intensity of grazing may significantly influence the habitat losses and gains and can be considered as parameters for modeling of species distributions.