Assessment of climate change impact on common bean (Phaseolus Vulgaris Savi, L.) production in Tanzania

Abstract

Our understanding of how bean crops may respond to climate change is important in designing agronomic and breeding programs for the future. This study assessed the climate change impact on common bean yield in major producing regions of Tanzania. Five Coupled Mode Inter-Comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)] were evaluated against the baseline climate. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v4.5) model was used. Under RCP 4.5, the yield increased by 10-32 % for Bukoba, Manyara, Kigoma, and Mbeya, and it decreased by 3 % for Musoma in the near-term period. Under RCP 8.5, the yield increased by 5-30 % in the near-term, 15-40 % in the mid-century, and 20-48 % in the end-century periods for all bean growing areas. More on the climate change impact trajectory and further research recommendations for the common bean is discussed in this study.