What Is the Effect of Population Ageing in Regional Labour Market Fluctuations of Germany? A SVAR with Zero-Sign Restrictions Approach

Abstract

This study analyses the effect of population ageing in the ten federal states (Länder) of West Germany during the period ranging from 1970 to 2014. To that aim, we estimate a Bayesian VAR model including wages, labour force participation rates, unemployment rates and the share of population above 65 years. Structural regional labour market shocks are identified employing a combination of zero and sign restrictions. Our findings suggest that shocks to population ageing on impact, increase the participation rate, the unemployment rate and decrease wages. However, the above effects on participation and unemployment are short-lasting and after a few periods their response is inverted. Our variance decomposition analysis reveals that the most relevant channel of impact on the economy implied by ageing is that of wages.