Late Holocene flood probabilities in the Black Hills, South Dakota with emphasis on the Medieval Climate Anomaly

Abstract

A stratigraphic record of 35 large paleofloods and four large historical floods during the last 2000. years for four basins in the Black Hills of South Dakota reveals three long-term flooding episodes, identified using probability distributions, at A.D.: 120-395, 900-1290, and 1410 to present. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~. A.D. 900-1300) the four basins collectively experienced 13 large floods compared to nine large floods in the previous 800. years, including the largest floods of the last 2000. years for two of the four basins. This high concentration of extreme floods is likely caused by one or more of the following: 1) instability of air masses caused by stronger than normal westerlies; 2) larger or more frequent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean; and/or 3) reduced land covering vegetation or increased forest fires caused by persistent regional drought.