Cointegration: Overview and Development

Abstract

This article presents a survey of the analysis of cointegration using the vector autoregressive model. After a few illustrative economic examples, the three model based approaches to the analysis of cointegration are dis- cussed. The vector autoregressive model is defined and the moving average representation of the solution, the Granger representation, is given. Next the interpretation of the model and its parameters and likelihood based infer- ence follows using reduced rank regression. The asymptotic analysis includes the distribution of the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimators, the rank test, and test for hypotheses on the cointegrating vectors. Finally, some ap- plications and extensions of the basic model are mentioned and the survey concludes with some open problems.