Enablers of an electricity system transition

Abstract

This research reveals a plausible future generation profile for the electricity network in southern Western Australia and seeks to understand the enablers and blockers to maintaining a stable electricity supply during a transition to that generation profile through to the late 2020’s. Transition theory is used as the theoretical framework for understanding the challenges for this transition and is supported by a series of semi-structured interviews with industry executives. The future profile will see the retirement of a significant proportion of synchronous coal fired generation, replacement with an equivalent capacity of solar and wind generation and at least as much distributed rooftop solar PV generation. Mid-day solar PV output will dominate the consumed energy and diminish network demand to levels that are expected to threaten the profitability of much of the existing baseload generators. Rooftop solar PV has limited visibility to and uncontrollable by the system control center, which under current market settings will struggle to maintain system frequency under the future generation profile. Wholesale market reforms will be required to maintain energy security, including to; tariff structures; ancillary services markets; connection codes; public generator bidding and ownership structures; and the role of consumers in the future market. These reforms are heavily confounded by the adversarial political system; legacy decisions around uniform tariffs; incumbency; and uncertainty over the willingness of society to accept third party control of their personal loads, solar PV output or battery services. The key to the transition will be creating the social and political space within which reforms can be made.