Consensus by simulation: A flood model for participatory policy making

Abstract

An overall goal of the Upper Tisza flood risk management project was to design a flood management policy that shared liability for disaster losses between the central government and individual households in a way that was considered acceptable by all the stakeholders. A participatory approach was adopted, where a flood simulation model was used interactively to support the process. In this chapter, we describe the design, implementation and use of the dynamic and spatially explicit flood simulation model, which incorporated novel elements like micro-level representation and Monte Carlo techniques. The model was provided with an interactive graphical interface designed to facilitate its use as a decision support tool in a participatory setting with multiple users. During this process, the model supported comparisons between pre-defined policy options, as well as the design of a new policy option on which consensus was finally reached.