Meta-analysis of the potential of Kazakhstani pork in the global market of meat products: Problems and prospects

Abstract

Background and Aim: Pig farming is integral in developing Kazakhstan's animal husbandry as it has shown rapid growth in profit and a high turnover. Industrial pig products have significant global demand, particularly in China and Russia. However, as pig farming is a small-scale industry with insufficient mechanization and automation in Kazakhstan, the costs have increased while the quality of Kazakhstani pig products has decreased due to the simultaneous influx of cheap imported pork into the domestic market. This study aimed to analyze the export potential of the swine industry in the Republic of Kazakhstan and assess its impact on the global pork market. Materials and Methods: A meta-analysis of open sources was conducted for the period 1990-2020, while forecasting was extended to 2025. Statistical methods for the analysis (construction of time series with equal intervals, calculation, interpretation of average values, and growth rates) were used. Pearson correlation analysis was performed to study the dependence of the productivity of pigs on the category of the pig farming enterprise to establish the relationship between the average live weight of one head of pigs and the share of pigs in agricultural enterprises in the total number of pigs. The polynomial smoothing method was used, and a trend line was built, forecasting the number of pigs in Kazakhstan, the production and sale of pig products, along with their cost and profitability. Results: This study briefly characterizes the developing situation of the global pork market. We identified and evaluated the development trends in Kazakh pig farming in terms of their impact on the industry's export potential. Specifically, we determined the following trends: An increase in the actual and projected number of pigs; a decrease in the natural loss of pigs during 2014-2020; the growth of existing and forecast indicators of pork sales in the domestic market; a steady decrease in the share of pigs in small households and an increase in the share of pigs in peasant farms and agricultural enterprises; an increase in the dynamics of the productivity of the pig population; and the growth of actual and predicted profitability of production and sale of pig products. We discussed the main problems that hinder the entry of Kazakhstani pork into the global market: Small-scale farming, insufficient mechanization and automation, and inadequate financial support from the state and banking structures. First, small-scale farming (deduced from the number of pigs by the farm categories) has hampered the small farms' independent manufacture and use of feed grain (i.e., barley, which is abundant in Kazakhstan), which might reduce costs. Moreover, small-scale farms struggle to comply with the waste disposal rules for pig production and environmental safety norms, which limit the export potential of Kazakhstani pork. Second, insufficient mechanization and automation in feeding and breeding (i.e., use of resource-saving technologies) result in inadequate productivity, decreased competitiveness, and failure to meet global standards. Third, insufficient financial support in the form of grants allocated to purposes other than selection and breeding limits the overall development of Kazakhstani pig farming. Conclusion: The positive dynamics of the main development indicators of Kazakhstani pig farming efficiently assess the industry's export potential, according to the country's leading academic specialists and practitioners in the agricultural sector, especially in light of the difficult epizootic situation. This provides abundant opportunities for export supplies in the global meat market. These indicators include the number of pigs, its natural decline, and structure by farm categories. They also include the production, sale, and profitability of production of pig products and the productivity of pigs. As China and Russia currently have a massive shortage of this product in the domestic markets, they are potential importers of Kazakh pork.