Rapid estimation of viral emission source location via genetic algorithm

Abstract

Indoor spread of infectious diseases is well-studied as a common transmission route. For highly infectious diseases, like Sars-CoV-2, considering poorly or semi ventilated areas outdoors is increasingly important. This is important in communities with high proportions of infected people, highly infectious variants, or where spread is difficult to manage. This work develops a simulation framework based on probabilistic distributions of viral particles, decay, and infection. The methodology reduces the computational cost of generating rapid estimations of a wide variety of scenarios compared to other simulation methods with high computational cost and more fidelity. Outdoor predictions are provided in example applications for a gathering of five people with oscillating wind and a public speaking event. The results indicate that infection is sensitive to population density and outdoor transmission is plausible and likely locations of a virtual super-spreader are identified. Outdoor gatherings should consider precautions to reduce infection spread.