Projeção de um cenário econômico e de desmatamento para a Amazônia Legal Brasileira entre 2006 e 2030

Abstract

The Legal Amazon was the target of development policies during the twentieth century. With different structural characteristics from the rest of Brazil and possessing the largest tropical forest of the world, the result was economic growth and deforestation. Some elements, such as the developmental policies from the 1970s and 1980s, investments in infrastructure, livestock and agriculture, have been pointed out as the determinants of deforestation. This paper presents a methodology for projecting deforestation in the different regions within the Legal Amazon caused by economic factors and structural conditions. We thus used a dynamic interregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with a specification for land use, an innovation within the literature. The results for the period under study (2006-2030) showed that regions with higher growth and deforestation would be those located in the arc of deforestation (Mato Grosso, Pará e Rondônia), especially areas of soybean and cattle production.