Rainfall trend analysis for crop planning under rainfed conditions in district Agra of Uttar Pradesh

Abstract

Trend analysis of historical data of rainfall of Agra district has been conducted in the present study using parametric and non-parametric models. The analysis was carried out using 51 years data (1965-2015) of rain gauge station located at meteorological observatory of ICAR-Indian Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Research centre, Agra, Uttar Pradesh. Simple statistical parameters were calculated and it was found that rainfall ranged from 241.4 mm to 1235.1 mm with average annual rainfall 671.58mm. Similarly, annual rainy days ranged from 15 to 55 with average 38. Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope and linear regression methods were used for the trend analysis of rainfall and rainy days data on monthly, seasonal and annual basis. It was found that some of the months are showing rising trend whereas others showing falling trend of rainfall. Similar types of results were found when annual and seasonal rainfall and rainy days series were tested for their trend. In most cases trends were found no significant at 5% significance level except monthly rainfall of May and August months and also for monsoon season rainfall and rainy days.