The volatility of the index of shanghai stock market research based on ARCH and its extended forms

Abstract

The proposed ARCH and its extension model have brought a powerful tool for the study of stock market volatility as well as verify that a high risk brings high-yield and the leverage effect of stock market. This paper gives modeling analysis by using the ARCH group models; in the last ten years Shanghai's index returns, concluded that there are significant high-yield associated with high-risk phenomenon and the leverage effect in the domestic securities market. The previous studies in fitting return series of ARMA models, mostly with low accuracy have a very subjective observation autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function method, and even directly use random walk model. That will inevitably have some impact on the accuracy of the model. While this paper adopts the Pandit-Wu formulaic modeling method, the ARMA model is built on a strong theoretical foundation. © 2009 Hao Liu et al.