The ways of scientific anticipation: From guesses to probabilities and from there to certainty

Abstract

Science of anticipation can be distinguished into three kinds, each relying on a different psychological mechanism. Further, these mechanisms-based on everyday conceptual thinking, thinking in logical concepts and thinking in systemic concepts, respectively-are in hierarchical relationships the first being the least developed and the last the most developed form of (scientific) thought. Each of these three sciences has specific to it understanding of what is scientific explanation and by which methods the explanation can be achieved. It is noteworthy that following from the epistemology and methodology of each of the three kinds of sciences, different forms of scientific anticipation can be achieved. The least developed everyday conceptual science grounds anticipation essentially on chance discoveries of patterns in everyday observations. Logical conceptual thought allows formalization of anticipation, mathematical in the first place. Yet formal anticipation is limited, because it does not contain understanding of why, by which mechanisms, certain events-"causes"-are followed by others-"effects." This limitation can be overcome by structural-systemic science, which grounds anticipation on explicit understanding of the structures and the ways they change.