A fuzzy multi-criteria approach to sustainable island-based tourism development

Abstract

This paper aims to propose a framework by which decision-makers can evaluate and compare alternatives for sustainable island-based tourism development. The uncertainties and risks involved in information and judgment within the evaluation process were taken into account by using a hybrid approach, which combined the Delphi method, fuzzy set theory, and a discrete multi-criteria method based on prospect theory called TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese of interactive and multiple-criteria decision making). The decision making model examined 3 different techniques for aggregating the viewpoints of different decision-makers and explored how the aggregation technique would affect the ranking of the alternatives. To demonstrate the potential application of the proposed approach, it was examined for the development of Hendourabi Island (Iran) for tourism. Results showed that among the 3 alternative development plans, decision-makers preferred the medium-size development alternative, since it offered a balance between benefits of tourism market and costs of project development under an uncertain future. It also allowed for adaptive management. Results also showed that the proposed approach, which reduced loss regret in decision-making under uncertain future, could be used effectively for planning the island development under an uncertain dynamic future considering the risk and uncertainty associated with human judgment.