Spatiotemporal Variability of Sea Ice in the Arctic's Last Ice Area

Abstract

The Arctic Ocean's oldest and thickest sea ice lies along the ~2,000 km arc from the western Canadian Arctic Archipelago to the northern coast of Greenland. Climate models suggest that this region will be the last to lose its perennial ice cover, thus providing an important refuge for ice-dependent species. However, remarkably little is known about the climate or characteristics of the sea ice in this remote and inhospitable region. Here, we use the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System model to show that the ice cover in the region is very dynamic, with changes occurring at a rate twice that of the Arctic Ocean as a whole. However, there are some differences in the changing nature of the ice cover between the eastern and western regions of the Last Ice Area, which include different timing of the annual minimum in ice thickness as well as distinct ice motion patterns associated with ice thickness extrema.