From Harbinger to Role Model: The Influence of the Euro in Regional Monetary Cooperation

Abstract

Several authors (Cohen, International Affairs 84(3):455–470, 2008a; Marsh, The Euro: The politics of the new global currency. New Haven, Yale University Press, 2009; Rogoff, The global fallout of a eurozone collapse. Financial Times, 2011) have acknowledged that if (and this is still a big if) the euro survives and becomes a consolidated project it will act as template for monetary unions in other parts of the world. However, theirs are only speculative assumptions. They do not base their claims on empirical evidence. I provide the empirical material to support their hypothesis. On the basis of near 80 semi-structured financial elite interviews in China, Brazil and the GCC (concretely in Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), my empirically grounded research shows that indeed the euro is seen in China as a harbinger, in Brazil as a source of inspiration and in the GCC as a role model for regional monetary cooperation. Furthermore, the consolidation of the euro does also show that a multipolar monetary system might be more stable than the current system dominated by the dollar. In all these cases, the euro project is seen as a laboratory for future monetary developments, thus the ideational influence and power of Europe in monetary affairs is considerable.