Rating teams and analysing outcomes in one-day and test cricket

Abstract

Multiple linear regression techniques are applied to determine the relative batting and bowling strengths and a common home advantage for teams playing both innings of international one-day cricket and the first innings of a test-match. It is established that in both forms of the game Australia and South Africa were rated substantially above the other teams. It is also shown that home teams generally enjoyed a significant advantage. Using the relative batting and bowling strengths of teams, together with parameters that are associated with common home advantage, winning the toss and the establishment of a first-innings lead, multinomial logistic regression techniques are applied to explore further how these factors critically affect outcomes of test-matches. It is established that in test cricket a team's first-innings batting and bowling strength, first-innings lead, batting order and home advantage are strong predictors of a winning match outcome. Contrary to popular opinion, it is found that the team batting second in a test enjoys a significant advantage. Notably, the relative superiority of teams during the fourth innings of a test-match, but not the third innings, is a strong predictor of a winning outcome. There is no evidence to suggest that teams generally gained a winning advantage as a result of winning the toss.